(For a background behind this series and references/sources used, please view the first article of this series at: https://nitnblogs.blogspot.com/2019/01/series-of-posts-on-psychology-of-human.html)
“The brain of man is programmed with a tendency to quickly remove doubt by reaching some decision. What usually triggers Doubt-Avoidance Tendency is some combination of (l) puzzlement and (2) stress. And both of these factors naturally occur in facing religious issues.” Charlie feels that these two factors are the reason why religion is so commonly practiced by men, as it is a very natural state to be in.
My Notes:
A popular name for this tendency is ‘cognitive dissonance’. Faced with vast amounts of data and a shortage of time we opt for simplicity, and focus on a few salient signals which generally work.
This tendency is a classic “System 1” response as per Daniel Kahneman (System 1 “is the brain’s fast, automatic, intuitive approach, System 2 “the mind’s slower, analytical mode, where reason dominates.”). The decision taken under the influence of the doubt-avoidance tendency may not always be rational or objective, by definition, but what is most intuitive. If we are unsure about a decision we try to quickly remove any doubt by making an ill-informed, quick and intuitive decision. A person who is neither under pressure nor threatened should ideally not be prompted to remove doubt through rushing to some decision. Yet, more often than not we find ourselves doing exactly the opposite. So do not rush into decisions.
One antidote to this tendency is to bring “System 2” into play – that is periodically review the decisions made later on with an analytical bent of mind. To avoid this bias, next time when you decide to do something, don't instantly believe that it’s the best option for you to do at that exact moment in time. If you can discipline yourself to think before you act, even a few milliseconds can make a huge difference. One corollary is that good batsmen in cricket are never hurried - they take a few milliseconds to decide what shot to play which is the difference between a good batsman and a great one.
“The brain of man is programmed with a tendency to quickly remove doubt by reaching some decision. What usually triggers Doubt-Avoidance Tendency is some combination of (l) puzzlement and (2) stress. And both of these factors naturally occur in facing religious issues.” Charlie feels that these two factors are the reason why religion is so commonly practiced by men, as it is a very natural state to be in.
My Notes:
A popular name for this tendency is ‘cognitive dissonance’. Faced with vast amounts of data and a shortage of time we opt for simplicity, and focus on a few salient signals which generally work.
This tendency is a classic “System 1” response as per Daniel Kahneman (System 1 “is the brain’s fast, automatic, intuitive approach, System 2 “the mind’s slower, analytical mode, where reason dominates.”). The decision taken under the influence of the doubt-avoidance tendency may not always be rational or objective, by definition, but what is most intuitive. If we are unsure about a decision we try to quickly remove any doubt by making an ill-informed, quick and intuitive decision. A person who is neither under pressure nor threatened should ideally not be prompted to remove doubt through rushing to some decision. Yet, more often than not we find ourselves doing exactly the opposite. So do not rush into decisions.
One antidote to this tendency is to bring “System 2” into play – that is periodically review the decisions made later on with an analytical bent of mind. To avoid this bias, next time when you decide to do something, don't instantly believe that it’s the best option for you to do at that exact moment in time. If you can discipline yourself to think before you act, even a few milliseconds can make a huge difference. One corollary is that good batsmen in cricket are never hurried - they take a few milliseconds to decide what shot to play which is the difference between a good batsman and a great one.
Farnam Street: “Spend a single day asking yourself this simple question: Do I know this for sure, or have I simply landed on a comfortable spot? You’ll be surprised how many things you do and believe just because it’s easy. You might not even know how you landed there. Don’t feel bad about it — it’s as natural as breathing. You were wired that way at birth. But there is a way to attack this problem.
Munger has a dictum that he won’t allow himself to hold an opinion unless he knows the other side of the argument better than that side does. Such an unforgiving approach means that he’s not often wrong. (It sometimes takes many years to show, but posterity has rarely shown him to be way off.) It’s a tough, wise, and correct solution.”
Examples:
- This is probably a good one for entrepreneurs. You’d better not have a lot of doubts about what you are doing because everyone else will, and if you do too, you’ll probably give up. Of course, an entrepreneur’s doubt avoidance is only a plus right up to the point where it becomes pigheaded stubbornness that interferes with her ability to see reality, particularly when a strategy is not working. (Marc)
- Entrepreneurial judgment is the ability to tell the difference between a situation that’s not working but persistence and iteration will ultimately prove it out, versus a situation that’s not working and additional effort is a destructive waste of time and radical change is necessary. There are no good rules for being able to tell the difference between the two. Which is one of the main reasons starting a company is so hard. (Marc)
- The doubt-avoidance tendency is most visible usually in the thick of a bull run, when new investors who have been late to the party invest at the drop of a hat, without any research and analysis.
- How often do you trade on impulse without asking the right questions? How open are you to hear negative things about stocks that you are very optimistic about? The boredom and pain that is usually part of a thorough scrutiny and analysis of a stock is often avoided. Quick conclusions and quick decisions are often preferred instead of the burden of doubts and ambiguity.
- Keeping and maintaining a decision journal where you periodically look at the major decisions you made, the reasons for making them and your expected outcomes is a good antidote to understanding your blind spots.
- One of the main reasons the legal system (and jury process) across the world is designed to take a lot of time is because we do not want this tendency to come into play and lead to quick (but wrong) decisions.
- This tendency is the perennial supply of stories for films and soap operas - how many movies have you seen where the first impression in a simple situation led to others misjudging the character and leading to a long winded plot?
- Countering the inertia of your business is tough. Pivoting a company, letting go employees who have been around for a long time, stopping a strategy that’s not working – all these introduce doubt and the easier thing is to just perpetuate the action.
- If you have 3 stocks to invest in, most probably you would split your investments and equally invest in these. There is a very useful Kelly Formula to allocate capital among assets with different expected returns, however since it requires work and is not intuitive, we generally do not follow it.
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